Wednesday, 25 March 2026

So, what’s happening in West Asia?

It is seemingly a clownish behavior of a head of state to do things that have so far been done and given statements against sovereign countries as have been given and acts done as have unfolded in last over three weeks period. So, why did all of these unsavory things happen? Is it because the Americans have given reins of their country to a clown? Well, on the surface, this is exactly how it looks like. However, there far more sinister things at work here than what appears on the surface.


Let’s look at the events that have unfolded over last one year — the said head of state has imposed arbitrary tariffs on every possible country in the world, ally or adversary alike but it did not help the US as he had tom-tommed about to begin with and instead it has impacted the US economy and public negatively. On the other side, the US funding of Ukraine in the never ending Russo-Ukrainian conflict has ballooned the US fiscal deficit over an increasingly unsustainable level of $37 trillion! Over the last one year, from the roller-coaster of tariff policy with every possible trade partner over the one year, to claims of making peace across the world in ensuing wars, to attacking Venezuela and installing its pliable government there, to claiming ownership of sovereign territories of Greenland from Denmark, to getting ready to take over another sovereign country Cuba apparently saying that, “I can do what I want!”, Trump has shown clear and unmistakable signs of a megalomaniac, narcissistic clown who has by providence gotten control of the so-called solo super power of the world! With all this in background, just eight months back US-Israel had attacked Iran and claimed to have destroyed its nuclear capability — so, why was there a need to attack it again over a weekend when negotiations were going on and expected to get positive results when they were to resume on Monday post that fateful weekend?


For this, we need to go over 6 years back — just before the onset of the Covid pandemic — a pandemic that wasn’t an accident but one that was started deliberately. The question that has been asked many times over is who started it and why the it was started? The pandemic as we know it now was employed as a tool to hopefully create mass population reduction and dismantle governments across the globe that didn’t suit the powers that be, aka the deep st@te (DS). It achieved some of its goals partially especially to dismantle un-pliable governments across the globe from Brazil to the UK to Australia and many countries in the middle but it couldn’t remove one ie. Modi government in Bharat. Since then, there have been relentless effort to dismantle the Modi government by the DS — be it attack on the stock market (through the likes of Hindenburg) or be it the caste bogie to divide the Hindus and Muslim vote consolidation behind CONgress to dislodge the Modi government in 2024 general elections and yet Modi government came back, albeit in a coalition and the efforts for dislodging continued even after that under the Biden administration’s last six months or so. So, when in Jan 2025 the Trump administration took office in the White House, Bharat and the Modi government expected a reprieve and revival of Modi-Trump partnership carrying on from the 1st term of the Trump administration albeit it was clear to the Modi government to begin with itself that the Trump administration would focus on MAGA to address it constituency that had voted him to be their President for the second time. So, whilst the tariffs were expected but what was expected was some sanity in its implementation. However, on the contrary, it has been an arbitrary roller coaster of tariff announcements, withdrawals and implementation and again with arbitrary hikes on whims and fancies of Trump! To top it, Trump has had a beeline of world leaders visiting the White House to meet with him to negotiate tariffs but instead he has been heaping insults on them in front of the whole world — the latest in this has been the newly elected Japanese Prime Minister who was insulted in the White House. On the other hand, tariffs continued much of the world submitted to the tariffs imposed by Trump, Bharat and China pushed back and while China pushed back by blocking off critical mineral and rare earth magnet exports to the US and thus got lesser tariffs; Trump imposed arbitrarily high tariffs on Bharat for buying Russian oil. After almost a year Bharat-US agreed on contours of a trade deal only to be further disrupted by the US Supreme Court order of cancelling the tariffs imposed by Trump and now that trade deal’s fate too is uncertain as are his tariffs. To add to this, Trump is looking for ways to reimpose them! 


Now, there is a marked difference in the way Trump conducted his business in his 1st term versus how he is doing it now — this time around, he’s acting as a brash bully, insulting world leaders after inviting them to the White House and throwing diplomacy to the trash can! While his actions can be called clownish but it has become increasingly so as his 2nd term has progressed. Why has this change in Trump’s behavior come about to become a clownish brash bully? Today, the US faces its biggest challenge as a country as its fiscal deficit reaches unsustainable levels; the economy is teetering; its global hegemony being challenged; US dollar’s standing as reserve currency of the world being challenged; and in the stock market one always keeps hearing of a big AI bubble ready to burst — not a happy situation to be in for the so-called sole super power of the world! Even after imposing 50% tariffs on Bharat, it did not create any significant impact on Bharat’s exports which only grew (including to the US) and so did the economy that grew over 7% in all of 2025 and expected to continue at the same pace going in 2026! On the other hand, China too continues to grow around 5% even after high tariffs imposed by the US with very limited economic impact, at least visibly so. 


So, the DS’ objective to effect regime change not having worked out for Bharat and continued rise of China despite all efforts wasn’t seemingly happening under the scenarios that were visible clearly to them in the last 6-7 years and on the other hand world order seems to be changing from uni-polar to a multi-polar one with the US hegemony as well as US dollar’s dominance as a reserve currency getting challenged especially by China and Bharat. Therefore, the DS had to come up with something ingenious. And, Trump was perhaps the best candidate that could pull off what the DS wanted to accomplish — that is to stop the rise of Bharat and ditto with China. So, the ‘clown’ in Trump was ‘unleashed’ and given the job to clown around while delivering tariffs along with insults to the visiting head of states! This way post his term apologies can be sought for his misdemeanors as that of a ‘senile clown’ and the US can have an easy reset of ties with all the bruised partner countries including NATO. So, why attack Iran again and then go on to make the ‘clownish’ statements he keeps posting on X — in one such latest statement, he’s talking about ultimatums of impending destruction to power infrastructure in Iran and then in the next moment, stoppage of all hostilities for next 5 days! Why? These two statements and responses to them by Iran has left stock markets across the globe crash and oil prices touch $120 per barrel and then bounce back the next day! In the last one week, Israel attacked the oil and gas fields and infrastructure in Iran and Iran carried out devastating attacks on GCC countries from Kuwait, to Bahrain, to Qatar, to Saudi and the UAE. These attacks have ensured that a significant portion of oil and gas flows from the gulf will remain unavailable for a few years at the very least, if not more. On the other side, in the last few days Ukraine has attacked oil infrastructure in Russia as well and there has been fire in a major refinery in Texas, US. The impact of all these events will result in oil prices firming up and they will remain firm for the foreseeable future impacting the global South and both Bharat and China the most! At the same time, the FIIs are selling stocks in Bharat relentlessly since Sep-24 leading to a continuous slide of the Rupee as well as the stock markets in Bharat — this will further make oil and gas imports expensive, increasing demand for US dollar and thus leading to further slide of the Rupee. Both these, higher oil and gas prices and their depleted supplies and devalued Rupee will impact Bharat’s economy very adversely: fiscal shock, balance of payment issue, scarcity/ increase in prices of fertilizers, higher prices of oil and gas for domestic consumers, rise in inflation, decreased consumer demand and thus reduced tax collection for government or in effect, a stunted growth of Bharat’s economy and thus lesser resource availability with Modi government for social sector leading to making it unpopular. This will impact China too albeit to a lesser degree. So, the DS achieves its objective of containing Bharat while impacting China too significantly and after 3 years when the new administration takes office in the White House, it will blame it all on the ‘clown’ Trump and ask for a reset in relationship with all countries but by then they would have delayed Bharat’s rise, managed China’s power and ensured US dollar’s dominance as reserve currency and that the US still remains the global hegemon! 

 

While the DS is hoping for this outcome  but just as after the man-made pandemic where it failed, it will in all likelihood fail here too, yet again! 

 

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